1 answer

Welsh Gas is one of the largest utility companies in Wales. The company gathered quarterly data...

Question:

Welsh Gas is one of the largest utility companies in Wales. The company gathered quarterly data for the demand of Gas (in 100,000 cubic feet), reported in the following table Demand Quarterfor Gas Time Year 1481 1241 948 1286 1616 1361 975 1211 1755 1511 1132 1575 1965 1181 10 12 13 14 15 16 (a) The linear regression model (without seasonal adjustment) of the Demand of Gas on Time is as followS Gas= 1217.55 + 20.90 Time with R2-0.0894 and significance levels of. QUESTION CONTINUED IN THE NEXT PAGE Standard Coefficients Errort Stat P-value Intercept 1217.555 163.9284 7.427359 7.97E-06 Time 20.90934 19.25241 1.086063 0.298787 Use the ratio-to-trend method to forecast the Demand of Gas for the next two quarters (i.e., for quarters 3 and 4 ofyear 4)

Welsh Gas is one of the largest utility companies in Wales. The company gathered quarterly data for the demand of Gas (in 100,000 cubic feet), reported in the following table Demand Quarterfor Gas Time Year 1481 1241 948 1286 1616 1361 975 1211 1755 1511 1132 1575 1965 1181 10 12 13 14 15 16 (a) The linear regression model (without seasonal adjustment) of the Demand of Gas on Time is as followS Gas= 1217.55 + 20.90 Time with R2-0.0894 and significance levels of. QUESTION CONTINUED IN THE NEXT PAGE Standard Coefficients Errort Stat P-value Intercept 1217.555 163.9284 7.427359 7.97E-06 Time 20.90934 19.25241 1.086063 0.298787 Use the ratio-to-trend method to forecast the Demand of Gas for the next two quarters (i.e., for quarters 3 and 4 ofyear 4)

Answers

t Actual Demand Unadjusted Trend Forecast Actual Demand/Trend Seasonal Indices Adjusted (Deseasonalized) Forecast
1 1481 1238.45 1.196 1.247 1543.78
2 1241 1259.35 0.985 0.960 1209.01
3 948 1280.25 0.740 0.746 954.82
4 1286 1301.15 0.988 0.979 1273.18
5 1616 1322.05 1.222 1.247 1648.00
6 1361 1342.95 1.013 0.960 1289.27
7 975 1363.85 0.715 0.746 1017.17
8 1211 1384.75 0.875 0.979 1354.98
9 1755 1405.65 1.249 1.247 1752.21
10 1511 1426.55 1.059 0.960 1369.53
11 1132 1447.45 0.782 0.746 1079.52
12 1575 1468.35 1.073 0.979 1436.79
13 1965 1489.25 1.319 1.247 1856.42
14 1181 1510.15 0.782 0.960 1449.79

Graph: 2500 y= 20.255x + 1222 R2 = 0.101 2000 1500 Actual Demand 1000 Deseasonalized Forecast 500 -Linear (Deseasonalized Forecast) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Year Quarter t Forecast Demand
4 3 17 1566.34
4 18 1586.59
.

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